Aviation Analysis
This is now my private website and all my business interests are at Armstrong Brooks Group
Disclaimer
I do NOT own a plane and I do NOT have a private Pilot's Licence (PPL) but I have had numerous meetings with people who own them, fly them and maintain them. Not to mention hundreds of hours spent reading relevant books, forums and magazines.
I have also flown in a few small planes and helicopters as a passenger.
So if you actually know anything about aviation you can stop reading right now. But if you don't, you may find some of this stuff useful.
Why have a Jet?
How can you ask such a question - just look at it! This is a Dassault Falcon 50EX. Awesome or what?
Phew - calm down.
Ready? So, I am looking at this from the point of view of the immature (ie most of us) wealthy guy who just fancies having a jet - in the same way you may fancy having a Lamborghini or a mistress - because you want one. That may seem childish and it is. But why does the man in the Ford Mondeo want a BMW or a bit on the side. And what's wrong with the Mondeo and the wife? Don't answer that - this is a rhetorical question.
On congested roads (95% of the time in the UK) a small 4WD will get you there just as well and much quicker than a fancy car. Would you drive a Lamborghini over a high curb or a central reservation to turn round in a blocked road? Or leave it by the side of the road in a rough area? Or down a green lane to avoid a hold-up? Me neither.
But the Lamborghini Huracan looks frigging awesome and will kill you in a heartbeat - what could be more fun? Well, a jet obviously.
And if you die in a jet, you will make national headlines - cool or what?
Impartial Advice - Really?
The first thing to realise is that everybody in the aviation business has an angle - if anybody is offering impartial advice, I have yet to meet them. And to a man (and woman), they are after your money. That is because aviation is a business that consumes money like a cow eats grass - non stop. Make that a herd of cows. So the only people who survive are pretty tough - the nice guys gave up years ago.
So what is my angle? Right now I don't really have one but I will soon with luck. But my technique has always been brutal honesty so when I do have an angle I will spell it out very clearly so you know. I WANT YOUR MONEY SIGN HERE
I Just Need to Go Places
Really? Well, that is surprising. But doubtless there are people who just need to go places as opposed to annoying the people they were at school with so let's take a look at that market.
Yes, there are cars, trains and buses but I am assuming we are talking about travelling to inaccessible places from other inaccessible places. How exactly do you get from Oxford to Cambridge in the UK? Or from Campbeltown to Galashiels in Scotland. With difficulty.
Less than 250 miles - Helicopters
If your trip is less than 250 miles then a helicopter may well be the answer
What kind of helicopter? Small ones are piston engined running on Avgas and big ones are turbines running on jet A1 (half the cost of Avgas but they use twice as much). Small helicopters are all made by Robinson (well half of them anyway). So you need a Robinson R44 which will carry 4 people (pilot plus three passengers) in mild discomfort. Cheap to buy and will cruise for a couple of hours at about 125 mph. Bigger ones are not much faster (there is a theoretical speed limit because the blade tips must not exceed the speed of sound)
Here are some things you need to know about helicopters:
You can learn to fly one in maybe 60 hours (to fly and insure a jet or serious Tuboprop you will need 1,000 hours and lots of expensive qualifications as well)
Pilots don't like hovering because if the engine stops you all die - if you are moving you can land with a bump
They are very noisy
They can pick you up in your garden and drop you absolutely anywhere. No paperwork. Just tell ATC (Air Traffic Control) and do it
The only snag is that you then find yourself in a field two miles from where you want to go
Your flight path is controlled by ATC but coming from Stansted in a Hughes 500 on 16th July 2019 we were routed right across Manchester's main runway to my incredulty (and the pilot's too) - see the runway photo I took.
Landing at a big airport will cost you - £900 at Stansted. Battersea is also very expensive but Canary Wharfe is a lot less.
Helicopters have a total rebuild every 2,000 hours or so depending on model so a rebuilt 1960 helicopter will be more expensive and better than one built recently with very few hours left
In my (theoretical and ignorant) opinion, the Robinson R22 is too small and if the engine fails you only have about 1.5 seconds to react but in an R44 you have about 4 seconds - so personally, I would not want to fly in an R22. I know the engines never fail but if it does ...
For 200 to 500 miles - Cirrus SR22
The Cirrus SR22 is analysed in Pistons above. It is the best selling small plane for a good reason. It will cruise at 200mph and does about 20 miles to the gallon (on Avgas). You can fly one with a PPL after maybe 60 hours of flying. And it also has a body parachute.
It will carry a pilot and three adults. In 2012 they introduced a variation (no model number) that enabled it to carry a pilot, three adults and a small adult or child.
Bear in mind that most small planes crammed full of fat people will NOT be able to carry a full tank of fuel as well. So, it is a compromise between passengers and range
If you are flying from very high (thin air) or soggy grass strips, or in high temperatures (thin air again) or with trees or high buildings at the end of the strip this will also effect your takeoff weight. But a stiff breeze in your face will help as it gives the plane more lift (think aircraft carriers). You can't just fill it up with fat people and fuel and then just take off. You have to do some serious thinking first.
On the plus side, when you land you will have a lot less fuel and in the worst case you could chuck out one of the fat people or pull the parachute lever
The accident statisitics are not that good - probably because the parachute encourages marginal behaviour "don't worry, if all else fails we have a parachute - let's go!"
Stop Press: 3rd August 2019 10.30am. Brett has just called to say that he can't meet me today at Hawarden because the SR22 he was due to fly up in from Blackbushe has developed a fault and there is "smoke pouring out of the engine". Um, yes, me too.
It turns out that there was no real problem - the mixture was just set far too rich - hence the smoke. But another day lost. Typical aviation day out - ruined by excessive caution. But, there again, when the engine stops, you do have a real problem. As they say, "there are old pilots and bold pilots but there are no old bold pilots"
For 400 to 1,200 miles - Turboprops
For more than 400 miles you need a single engine turboprop like a TBM930 or a Pilatus PC12 - see the Tables above under Aviation. Almost as fast as a jet, much greater range, can land on smaller and rougher runways. Easier to find pilots as there is no Type Rating. Much cheaper to run as there is only one engine. And they hold their price well, too.
For 1,000 to 10,000 miles - Jets
If you need to regularly fly long distances then you really do need a jet that will cruise comfortably at 400mph with a lavatory. Hurrah! Below that you don't. Boo, hiss.
When I make a really serious score (watch this space) I am going to buy a Dassault Falcon 50EX. Range of 3,000 miles at 500mph. I am surprised more people don't have one. I mean, what's not to like?
Buy v Rent
No rational businessman should buy a serious plane (one million and upwards) unless he is so wealthy that he can regard $100,000 in the same way that a normal human being regards $100. Annoying if you lose it but of no real consequence. As J P Morgan said, "if you have to ask how much it costs, you can't afford it" (somebody asked him how much his huge yacht cost to run and that was his reply). The same thing applies to serious planes.
So unless you are that wealthy, rent one a few times to see how you like it. It will cost you maybe £3,500 per hour for your trip unless you can haggle. For example, I have been quoted £14,000 by an AOC (a firm licenced to carry passengers) to fly from Hawarden to Gibraltar, which is about 1,200 miles (on Easy Jet it costs about £200, the airport is much closer than Hawarden and the plane has toilets).
That is because the plane actually flies, with two pilots (on an AOC even single pilot planes must have two pilots), from the Channel islands or wherever they left it after the last job, to Hawarden, then on to Gibraltar and then maybe it waits, or maybe they have another job nearby. But certainly, a lot of the time chartered jets are flying empty or the pilots are kicking their heels.
The dream job from the point of view of an AOC would be flying a guy round Europe all week to a series of meetings in various capitals. Munich on Monday, Tallin on Tuesday, Warsaw on Wednesday, Trieste on Thursday, Frankfurt on Friday then back to Stockport on Saturday morning. There are no "empty legs" and the plane and the pilots are kept busy.
But if you do buy you will have to somehow find pilots who are available and type rated on the plane you bought. So, if you buy something exotic you may well struggle. I love the Phenom 100 but there are fewer pilots around ...
Yes but How Much?
The two major costs that everybody ignores (especially pilots) are the cost of capital and depreciation. Even if you have $1m in the bank earning nothing, if you buy a plane you are still missing the return that that money could make sensibly invested. In commercial property (my business) you can buy a building that will give you a net return of say 5%pa or more if you are lucky. If you borrow the money it could well cost you more than 5%.
So capital ALWAYS costs money - say 5% per year. Then there is depreciation: if you buy a plane for $1m, how much are you going to get for it in five years time? Call me cynical but I think you should reckon on getting about $600,000 ie allow 10% pa for depreciation (it's compounded each year - do the sums). So that $1m tied up in a plane is already costing you over $3,000 per week before we even start the engines. Then there is hangarage, insurance, pilots, maintenance, fuel and endless unexpected bills. Unless the plane's engines are on some kind of "plan" in which case the engine side is covered.
A lot of this stuff is "how long is a piece of string?" but I think you should allow for the following on a $1.5m jet which is flown by one professional pilot (not you - that is impossible unless you have 1,000 hours under your belt) for 100 hours per annum. I am saying $1.5m because you really won't find much available below that figure.
| Subject | Cost $ pa |
|---|---|
| Cost of Capital at 5% | 75,000 |
| Depreciation at 10% | 150,000 |
| Hangarage | 15,000 |
| Insurance | 30,000 |
| Engine Fund | 20,000 |
| Fuel | 25,000 |
| Maintenace | 25,000 |
| Pilots | 50,000 |
| Unexpected Stuff | 50,000 |
| More Unexpected Stuff | 40,000 |
| Even More Unexpected Stuff | 20,000 |
| TOTAL | 500,000 |
Have I overdone the unexpected stuff? No - I have not. Arguably, I have underdone it. A review I read recently of the Dassault Falcon 100 (a super fast plane that looks and flies like a fighter jet) said, in effect: "fantastic plane but the hydraulics can be a bit troublesome - you can easily get an unexpected bill for $300,000". And a guy I know who maintains Cessna 510 Mustangs explained to me how one of their planes developed a cracked windscreen (one of four bits of glass at the front) and the glass alone cost $45,000. Now it will cost you $90,000 as you have to buy a pair - and that's before fitting it (don't worry, that will only cost a small amount, maybe $20,000)
In the USA (thank you Donald Trump) you can write off the cost of your jet against your business. In the UK you have to pay for it out of post tax income and you cannot recover the 20% VAT either. So to pay that £500,000 pa it costs to run your Mustang 510 or Phenom 100, you need to earn about £1m pa. Then you have to live as well. So really, in my opinion, you need to make about £5m a year to buy and run a jet without thinking about it.
One jet = 20 Lamborghinis = 200 Ford Mondeos
Terminology
Most prices in aviation seem to be in US Dollars but if you are British a charter company may well quote a trip in UK pounds. Those are the only two currencies I have seen used but maybe in Europe they use Euros?
Aviation is a nightmare of mixed terms and abbreviations - feet, pounds, dollars, kilos, knots - not to mention deliberately confusing terms. You will see a lot of tables where it is not obvious (to me anyway) what the units are - knots, pounds or mph and litres?
Not to mention all the acronyms such as VFR and IMC. Here is the official US List. There are literally thousands of them.
And how can a Mickey Mouse airport have twenty runways? Because Runway 9 means you approach from due East (90 degrees on the compass) and hope there is not a plane landing on runway 27 (which is an approach from due West at 270 degrees). See explanation of runway numbering
FL280? That means Flight Level is at 28,000 feet
As a wealthy guy you may well say "I don't need to know about that stuff - I employ people to worry about all that". But in my experience, ignorance always costs money - you must know enough to understand what the experts are saying and ask penetrating questions when necessary.
Old v New
If you buy a brand new jet you are going to lose at least $1m the moment you walk out of the showroom. On the other hand, if you buy a jet dating back to 1980 for $250,000 or so you may find that you cannot update the avionics and in due course it is scrap. Similarly if it the fuselage develops hairline cracks you will have to scrap it
If the paperwork on your new jet is not perfect then it is basically no longer an airplane but just a source of spare parts
So it is very much like the decision of whether to buy a brand new Honda or a 15 year old BMW. One will kill you with depreciation and the other will kill you with repair bills. So, in practice you buy a fairly new Honda still under warrantee
Everybody worries about engines but they are pretty well defined. Every 3,500 hours or so they need a rebuild at a cost of maybe $450,000 so you can do the sums. If the engines are on a plan, you just pay maybe $120 per hour per engine and the manufacturer looks after the engines and gives you piece of mind - I am told.
How Many Engines?
Modern turbines go for maybe 500,000 hours between faults so if you die in a plane crash it is extremely unlikely to be because of an engine failure. But, having said that, if you are flying 700 miles across water, a second engine will make you feel safer
In theory a second engine is handy in case one of them fails but most problems occur on takeoff and as pilots say "the second engine is to fly you to the site of the crash". In other words, an engine fails on takeoff and you engage full power on the second engine and that is supposed to enable you to complete the takeoff and fly around and then land safely.
But in practice, an engine fails and the plane staggers around and then crashes because real life is like that. In a simulator the second engine saves your life but in practice it just adds a huge complication. A bit like wearing massive protection gear on a bike - in theory it makes you safer but in practice you cannot see where you are going and you react much slower and you sweat like a pig.
So a single engine turboprop like a TBM930 or a Pilatus 12C is just fine.
Twin Piston Engined Planes
Unless you really know what you are doing (in which case you know a lot more than I do) you should avoid old twin engined piston engined planes. They are cheap to buy but expensive to run. The reason you might buy one is that you want to start a cheap AOC and in practice you still need two engines and two pilots.
Miscellaneous Stuff
As it happens, the insurance company picked up the bill - but he is a columnist in a well known magazine. Would they do the same for you or would they wriggle? Who knows?
"I am sure these clouds are nothing much - they always blow away in the evening".
"In the second world war, they had girls delivering planes they had never flown before - so how hard can it be?"
I have just read a book (Spitfire: A Very British Love Story by John Nichol) in which an experienced mechanic who has never flown a plane in his life, takes off in a Spitfire to rescue a friend in trouble (this is a true story - not Biggles). He lands at an air strip under heavy enemy fire to find his friend has already been rescued. To pass the time of day, he repairs four Spitfires which are marooned there while shells are landing all around him. The Spitfires he has repaired are all immediately flown to safety by their stranded pilots.
He is then arrested and court martialled but the officers of the court really want to give him a medal but settle for a ticking off.
Heroic, but don't try this at home.
It is illegal in a "complex" aircraft ie a Turboprop or a Jet. But plenty of people do it - see dead footballers for details
Conclusion
Don't buy a jet unless you are so wealthy it is not significant or you need to fly really long journeys and your time is extremely valuable. Or, like me, you think that advice is there to be ignored and you know better.
Modified on 09/08/2019 at 11:41:13 by Bob Cory - 'wavering' on Pprune and Pistonheads